At the onset of the year Donald Trump was a solid favorite to win reelection as President of the United States. Controversy has been a staple of the Trump Presidency since the day that he announced as a candidate. A powerhouse economy with record unemployment was going to catapult Trump with the US Politics Odds. But then the old political adage took over. “Events, events, events,” is what keep pols awake at night. And the coronavirus has completely changed the dynamics of the 2020 race. In the eventful drama of President Trump factors may change several more times.
Odds to Win 2020 Presidential Election: Donald Trump +135, Joe Biden +150, All Other Candidates +5000 or Higher
Date: Tuesday, November 3, 2020
2020 US Presidential Election Odds Overview and Analysis
Although President Trump is an underdog, he may offer considerable wagering value. Incumbent presidents are historically difficult to defeat. The last three presidents that ran for reelection were all victorious. Bill Clinton. George W. Bush, and Barack Obama all won second terms. In fact, since the hapless Herbert Hoover lost to Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1932, only two elected incumbent presidents have lost their reelection bids. They would be Jimmy Carter (1980) and George H. W. Bush (1992). In Biden’s favor is that the Democrat Party has won the popular vote in in six of the last seven elections.
Donald Trump’s Strength and Weaknesses
On the whole President Donald Trump is the ultimate two-sided coin. Many see one side of his bombast, tweeting, and perpetual combativeness. Flip the coin and you see perhaps the only Republican who could possibly overcome the party’s traditional obstacles. Media bias, pop culture, academics, and now sports all skew left. In short, America has become institutionally hard left.
Counter to that is the late President Richard Nixon’s famed “Silent Majority.” This group has come to loathe these hard-left institutions. Bullied into silence they simply vote in the secret booth as the ultimate Betting on politics statement. Trump calls these voters the “Forgotten Americans.” Indeed in 2016 Trump won these voters who previously gave up on voting.
Trump has another characteristic that many Republican voters appreciate. Unlike most Republicans, he fights back. And fights back as hard as a Democrat would. Fashion such gentlemanly Republican failures as John McCain, Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan and even George W. Bush at the end. Such Republicans would simply sit there and take it. Not Trump, the self-described “counterpuncher.”
Increasingly many voters have tired of Trump’s counterpunching. Too many tweets seem petty and out of touch with voter’s concerns. Trump will pick fights with pop culture figures and athletes. For example, his recent dust up with NASCAR driver Bubba Wallace was seen as unnecessary.
Joe Biden’s Strength and Weaknesses
Consider that Joe Biden was elected to the United States Senate in 1972. He served there until being elected as Barack Obama’s Vice President in 2008. In 40 years, Biden emerged as a classic insider and globalist. Additionally, he developed a reputation for being a gas bag gaffe machine. He flopped miserably in the 1988 and 2008 Democrat Presidential nomination race. His past outrageous statements helped make him a caricature of himself. For that reason, he was never really taken seriously. At least until now. He has emerged as a BetNow sportsbook favorite mostly as a protest against Trump.
Throughout his political career Biden has tried to pose as a friend to blue collar workers. By contrast he has constantly supported polices that have done great harm to manufacturing jobs. In this election cycle he vowed to trade jobs for “green” policy. This will leave Trump an opening.
Equally important is that Biden can’t be trusted on the stump. For the past few months, he has been locked in his Delaware basement. On the rare occasion that he is allowed out he commits notable gaffes. The worst being his statement that if blacks don’t vote for him, they “ain’t black.”
Democrat Party Institutional Advantages
As was previously noted the Democrat Party as won six of the last seven popular votes in Presidential elections. Hard left liberalism owns American pop culture lock, stock and barrel. Today in America, it’s impossible to avoid political messaging, even if you try. And yet sports used to be the one safe space from politics. Not anymore. Being “woke” is nearly as important as being good at a sport. Coaches and executives don’t dare contradict this edict. The general manager of the NBA Houston Rockets nearly lost his job for voicing support for Hong Kong.
Hollywood has been using movies as left wing propaganda for years. Suppose that you are conservative and want a film or TV job. Forget about it, you’ll be blacklisted. So too is that becoming the case in the education profession. Particularly at colleges and universities. Now corporations go out of their way to prove their “wokeness.” None dare voice conservative values or Trump support. American politics has become a soft tyranny of the “woke.” Of major concern is “cancel culture” for non-conformists.
Republican Institutional Advantages
The one thing that Trump and the Republicans have is a rabid base of support. Trump voters are aware of the bullying and intimidation if they admit their politics. For this purpose, Trump supporters are silent. Thus, this is a group of people in the millions that are never heard. President Nixon called them the “Silent Majority.” And so, they are. But they make an all-out effort to vote.
Take the case of Mitt Romney and John McCain. The “Silent Majority” stayed home and silent when they ran for President as Republicans. Cause by their timidity. Correlate Trump’s style of fighting back. Which is what energized his base to vote.
Much Yet to Come
Trump has had rough several months. Correspondingly he has often harmed himself. A news media that is the Democrat Cheerleading Squad has badly damaged him too. Still, with Biden refusing to condemn violent riots and support police Trump may be seen as the lesser of two evils. Most important of all will be how the COVID-19 economy recovers.